Non-Farm Payroll

A non-farm payroll is a report detailing the employment situation in the United States which is published on a regular monthly basis by Bureau of Labor Statistics. They publish it on the of the first Friday of every month at 8.30 am Eastern time.

The report primarily discloses the increase or decrease in jobs in the United States compared to the previous month. Then other data like the momentum of unemployment rate in the country. The data does not consider farm workers, private household employees, certain government employees, and non-profit organization employees.

• Non-farm payroll in the US is a regular monthly report presenting information about the labor force, excluding farmers and a few other workers in the US.
• NFP is a vital indicator of the performance of the American economy and can influence global confidence in the US as the strongest economy.
• NFP information is released on the first Friday of every month as a part of the Employment Situation Report.
• The information in the NFP report will be helpful to investors in optimizing trading in FOREX, bonds markets, the stock exchange, and so on.

The non-farm payroll indicates whether the employment rise or falls compared to the previous report in quantitative terms. It also denotes the current value of employment and percentage change in the unemployment rate in the country. In addition, the report shows the segregation of sectors where job gain and loss occurred. For instance, employment in the manufacturing and construction sectors increased simultaneously, and there was a decline in the retail industry.

In a nutshell, the NFP is one of the many ways of assessing the health of the US economy. The prompt monthly reporting is helpful to know about the current economic scenario and, when viewed on a temporal basis, i.e., comparing how the various aspects of NFP have changed for the past few months to make forecasts.

 When the NFP report becomes less vibrant over a couple of consecutive months, it could indicate an economy slowing down. Internationally, this could lead to various ramifications, including betting against the dollar, thus lowering its value, downgrading the credibility of the country's debt or companies in the US, and a tool to check the effect of policies put in place bolster the economy.

The report's statistics are based on two separate monthly surveys, Household Survey Data and Establishment Survey Data. The household survey determines labor force participation, whereas the establishment survey determines the industry's nonfarm employment, durations, and wages. 

The household survey data presents the total unemployment figures and reveals the rates based on demographics like age and ethnicity. For instance, the data contain the unemployment rates for Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics. It also includes the number of permanent job losers, persons on temporary layoff, long-term unemployed, labor force participation rate, the employment-population ratio, persons employed part-time for economic reasons, persons not in the labor force who currently want a job, and discouraged workers. 

Consider the following data of unemployment rate in percentage in the United States.

• December 2019: 3.6
• February 2020: 3.5
• April 2020: 14.8
• November 2021: 4.2

In November, unemployed persons fell by 542,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 from 4.6 in October 2021. Both are down from their peaks at the end of the February-April 2020 recession. However, they maintain a level higher compared to the pre-Covid period. For example, in February 2020, it was 3.5%. In this way, NFP reports of recent periods help the data analysis process.

Establishment survey presents information regarding change in non-farm payroll employment and details of average job growth, average hourly earnings, the average workweek (hours) in different sectors, and job gains or losses in various sectors like professional and business services, administrative and waste services, management, technical consulting services, transportation and warehousing, couriers and messengers, construction, manufacturing, financial services, retail, leisure, and hospitality. 

The report also contains revised data, if any. For instance, if there is any revision for September NFP employment data based on the additional information received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and the recalculation of seasonal factors, the report published in December can include the revised data in it.

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics releases the report or the payroll statistics as a subset of the Employment Situation Summary on the first Friday of each month at 8.30 am Eastern time. For example, the non-farm payroll date of 2021 November is Friday, 3^rd December 2021. The report also mentions the following release schedule.

Each month when the NFP report is released, the investors will process the information since it indicates the country's economic health. The release generally impacts the forex market, the bond market, and the stock market. The extent of this influence is proportional to the nature and size of the content in the report. It can cause an increase in volatility and a widening of the spread.

Trading after the NFP release is not uncommon, but traders should be more cautious. This news release creates a favorable environment with sudden price movements for day traders because it provides a near guarantee of a tradable move following the announcement. Typically, all types of markets destabilize for the first few moments after the information release as traders digest the information. It can be great for scalpers, but long-term traders would need to be careful to put in trade in any market at this point.

This has been a guide to Non-Farm Payroll and its Meaning. Here we discuss how to trade on non-farm payroll reports and their release date with a detailed explanation. You may also have a look at the following articles to learn more -

• Global Recession
• Unemployment Rate Formula
• Cyclical Unemployment